Mapping the Science of Environmental Voting
How scientists study the complex relationship between our planet's health and our political choices
In an era of escalating climate crises, the voting booth has become a new front line for environmental action. But how do scientists study the complex relationship between our planet's health and our political choices? A groundbreaking field of research, dubbed the "Ecology of Elections," is using advanced data analysis to map this very terrain.
By analyzing decades of academic research, scientists are uncovering how environmental concerns transform from personal worry to political power, shaping election outcomes and party platforms across the globe 7 .
This research reveals that the journey from environmental attitude to electoral action is far more complex—and fascinating—than it appears.
Imagine trying to understand a vast forest by examining every tree, leaf, and root system. Bibliometrics applies this same comprehensive approach to scientific literature. By using mathematical and statistical methods, researchers can analyze thousands of academic papers to identify hidden patterns, emerging trends, and intellectual connections that would be impossible to see through traditional reading 7 .
A recent bibliometric study analyzed 535 scientific articles on environmental voting behavior indexed in the Web of Science from 1991 to 2024 7 . This analysis revealed an intellectual landscape organized around several key themes.
| Research Theme | Percentage of Publications | Key Focus Areas |
|---|---|---|
| Green Party Impact | 38% | Policy influence, voter realignment, European contexts |
| Voter Psychology | 25% | Personality traits, environmental identity, risk perception |
| Political Polarization | 18% | Partisan divides, climate opinion as voting predictor |
| Policy Support Studies | 12% | Willingness to bear costs, policy effectiveness |
| Electoral Systems | 7% | Voting methods, strategic voting environments |
Research has extensively documented how environmental parties have shifted traditional political competition 7 .
Psychological studies dominate the field, seeking to understand personality traits and values 7 .
As climate change becomes more salient, research shows it increasingly divides voters along partisan lines .
"While bibliometric analysis maps the entire field, individual experiments provide the crucial data points."
One such landmark experiment occurred during the 2017 provincial election in British Columbia, Canada, where researchers partnered with environmental organizations to solve a critical puzzle: how best to mobilize voters who care about the environment 8 .
The election resulted in Canada's first-ever "red-green" (labor-environmentalist) coalition government under a first-past-the-post system, with the Green Party holding the balance of power—an unusual outcome that highlighted the growing influence of environmental voters 8 .
Six weeks before the election, researchers emailed a survey to 100,000 supporters of environmental organizations to measure their environmental attitudes and establish baseline data 8 .
From the 4,329 survey respondents, researchers created three distinct groups through random assignment 8 :
Volunteer phone bankers made two types of calls. The "regular GOTV" used proven voter mobilization techniques, while the "issue GOTV" incorporated elements of "deep canvassing"—initiating two-way conversations about environmentalism before encouraging turnout 8 .
Researchers measured actual voter turnout from official records and re-surveyed participants to detect any changes in environmental attitudes 8 .
| Experimental Condition | Sample Size | Type of Intervention |
|---|---|---|
| Control Group | 852 | No GOTV call |
| Regular GOTV Group | 1,497 | Standard voter mobilization call |
| Issue GOTV Group | 1,492 | Environmental discussion + mobilization call |
| Total Participants | 4,329 |
Both types of GOTV conversations produced only borderline significant effects on voter turnout, suggesting that already-engaged environmental supporters are difficult to mobilize further in high-salience elections 8 .
Surprisingly, the regular GOTV calls may have actually decreased environmental issue salience among recipients. The issue-based calls that discussed environmental topics did not produce this negative effect, but neither did they strengthen environmental attitudes as hypothesized 8 .
Contrary to expectations, neither approach strengthened participants' identification with the environmental movement or their sense of environmentalist identity 8 .
These results illuminate the challenges environmental organizations face in electoral politics. Supporters of environmental groups often lack the pre-existing social structures that make other constituencies (like religious or labor groups) easier to mobilize consistently 8 .
| Outcome Measure | Regular GOTV Effect | Issue GOTV Effect | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voter Turnout | Borderline significant increase | Borderline significant increase | Environmental supporters already vote at high rates |
| Environmental Issue Salience | Possible decrease | No significant change | Standard mobilization may crowd out environmental motivation |
| Environmentalist Identity | No significant change | No significant change | Brief calls don't strengthen movement identity |
| Movement Identification | No significant change | No significant change | Single intervention insufficient for identity building |
The British Columbia experiment represents just one approach in a diverse methodological toolkit. Researchers studying environmental voting behavior employ multiple sophisticated techniques:
Tools like the Bibliometrix package in R 7 enable scientists to process thousands of research articles, identifying citation networks and thematic clusters that define the field's intellectual structure.
Techniques such as LASSO regressions 2 help researchers analyze complex datasets with many variables, identifying which factors most strongly predict environmental attitudes and voting behavior while maintaining interpretability.
Large-scale surveys like the European Social Survey 2 and Voter Study Group polls provide crucial data on public opinion, allowing researchers to connect demographic factors, attitudes, and reported voting behavior.
Advanced techniques including logistic regression and mixed logit models 6 allow researchers to isolate the effect of environmental concerns from other factors that influence voting decisions.
Researchers create simulated Electoral College models to test counterfactual scenarios, such as how election outcomes might have differed if climate change had been less salient to voters.
The growing "Ecology of Elections" research reveals a dynamic interplay between planetary health and political choice. As climate impacts intensify, this research field becomes increasingly vital—not just for understanding elections, but for strengthening the democratic response to one of humanity's greatest challenges.
What bibliometric analysis makes clear is that environmental voting is no longer a niche interest but a robust, interdisciplinary field producing insights with real-world implications. From understanding why people who care deeply about nature sometimes fail to vote for environmental parties 2 , to recognizing how climate opinions swung the 2020 U.S. presidential election , this research helps map the complex pathway from environmental values to political power.
As you consider your next vote, remember that behind that simple action lies a complex ecosystem of attitudes, identities, and political structures—all being meticulously mapped by scientists seeking to understand the ecology of our democratic choices.